Dutch brewing giant Heineken has warned that its beer sales will decline in 2025, citing worsening global economic challenges and sluggish consumer demand across key markets. The world’s second-largest brewer said on Wednesday that it now expects beer volumes to “decline modestly” next year — a downgrade from its earlier projection of stable growth.
The announcement marks another setback for the company, whose shares plunged by more than 8% in July after it initially cautioned that annual volumes would remain flat. Heineken also revealed that its annual organic operating profit is now projected to fall at the lower end of its previously forecast 4% to 8% growth range.
Chief Executive Officer Dolf van den Brink acknowledged that macroeconomic volatility had deepened in the third quarter but expressed optimism for recovery once conditions stabilise. “We expect demand to recover when conditions normalise,” he said in a statement.
Despite the downgrade, analysts viewed Heineken’s update as slightly better than anticipated. Barclays analyst Laurence Whyatt noted that “all the negative stuff was expected — and in fact, it was expected to be worse.” Heineken’s shares rose nearly 1% in early trading following the announcement.
The brewer, which has struggled in markets such as Europe and Latin America, attributed the decline to weakened consumer sentiment driven by inflation, trade tensions, and the lingering impact of pricing disputes with retailers. In Brazil, shipment volumes contracted in the mid-teens percentage range, while in Europe, Heineken is still working to recover shelf space lost after pricing disagreements.
However, the company reported bright spots, including market share gains in Brazil and Mexico, and stronger performance in previously challenging regions such as Vietnam. Heineken’s third-quarter net revenue fell by 0.3%, slightly outperforming analyst expectations of a 0.8% decline, while overall beer volumes dropped 4.3%, broadly in line with forecasts.
As brewers globally contend with declining beer consumption amid shifting health trends and competition from alternative beverages, Heineken’s focus now turns to regaining momentum in emerging markets and stabilising demand in its core regions.
Melissa Enoch
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