System operator blames prolonged nationwide outages on severe fuel constraints crippling thermal power plants…..
Nigeria’s persistent nationwide blackouts are being driven largely by inadequate gas supply to thermal power plants, the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has revealed.
In a statement titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations,” released via its official X handle on Friday, the system operator disclosed that average available generation has dropped to about 4,300 megawatts, a fraction of the country’s installed capacity and far below estimated peak demand.
Maintenance Disruptions Trigger Crisis
The current wave of outages began in early February after scheduled maintenance on key gas infrastructure by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) and Seplat Energy temporarily disrupted gas deliveries to several thermal plants.
Although the maintenance exercise was planned, supply constraints have lingered, worsening electricity shortages across the national grid.
According to NISO Management, thermal plants — which account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s electricity generation mix — are operating far below capacity due to fuel limitations.
“We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations,” the statement said.
Less Than Half of Required Gas Available
The operator provided detailed figures to underscore the severity of the shortage. Thermal plants collectively require about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to function optimally.
However, as of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at roughly 692.00 million standard cubic feet per day less than 43 percent of required volume.
This shortfall has significantly constrained generation output and reduced the energy available for allocation to Distribution Companies (DisCos).
“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output,” NISO noted.
The implication is stark: more than half of the daily gas needed to power thermal stations is currently unavailable, sharply limiting electricity dispatched to homes and businesses nationwide.
Load Shedding to Protect the Grid
Faced with declining generation, NISO confirmed it has been forced to implement load shedding measures to stabilise the grid and prevent system collapse.
“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability,” the statement added.
The operator apologised to electricity consumers and market participants for the inconvenience but said it is working closely with stakeholders to restore supply levels as gas availability improves.
Structural Dependence on Gas
Nigeria’s electricity system remains heavily reliant on gas-fired thermal plants, which account for more than 70 percent of grid supply, with hydropower providing the balance. This structural dependence means disruptions in gas production, pipeline vandalism, maintenance shutdowns, pricing disagreements, or payment shortfalls often translate directly into nationwide blackouts.
Over the years, gas supply challenges have been linked to upstream production issues, foreign exchange constraints affecting gas pricing, legacy debts within the power value chain, and infrastructure bottlenecks.
Generating companies (GenCos) have repeatedly warned that inadequate remittances from DisCos weaken their ability to meet payment obligations to gas suppliers, further straining supply arrangements.
Although recent reforms formally separated the system operator from the Transmission Company of Nigeria in a bid to improve transparency and grid management, generation capacity remains tightly bound to fuel availability.
With national peak demand estimated at well above 20,000MW, the current 4,300MW average output highlights the scale of Nigeria’s power deficit.
Until gas supply stabilises and generation rebounds, electricity consumers across the country may continue to face rationing and prolonged outages, a stark reminder that fuel security remains the linchpin of Nigeria’s power sector recovery.
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