Federal Government projects ₦34.33tn revenue for 2026 as inflation, GDP growth and fiscal deficit forecasts shape medium-term plan
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved Nigeria’s 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), establishing key economic assumptions, revenue expectations and spending priorities that will guide national budgeting over the next three years.
Announcing the approval after Wednesday’s FEC meeting in Abuja, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the framework pegs crude oil price at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512 to the dollar for the 2026 fiscal year.
Bagudu disclosed that the government adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, but opted to base fiscal projections on a more conservative 1.8 million bpd output figure. He noted that the exchange rate outlook takes into account the political and economic dynamics expected ahead of the 2027 general elections.
According to the minister, inflation is projected to average 18 percent in 2026, based on extensive macroeconomic analysis conducted by the Budget Office and partner agencies.
Bagudu revealed that total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion. From this amount, the Federal Government is expected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments ₦11.85 trillion.
He added that when revenue from all federal sources is consolidated, including ₦4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue for 2026 is projected at ₦34.33 trillion. This represents a decline of ₦6.55 trillion, or 16 percent, compared to the 2025 budget estimate.
Statutory transfers are projected at roughly ₦3 trillion, while debt servicing is expected to cost ₦10.91 trillion in 2026.
Non-debt recurrent spending including personnel costs and overheads is estimated at ₦15.27 trillion.
The fiscal deficit for 2026 is forecast at ₦20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The MTEF projects nominal GDP to exceed ₦690 trillion in 2026 and rise to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028. GDP growth is expected to reach 4.6 percent next year.
Non-oil GDP is projected to expand from ₦550.7 trillion in 2026 to ₦871.3 trillion by 2028, while oil GDP is expected to grow from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion within the same period.
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