Local refining cuts fuel imports sharply, but rising crude imports and non-oil demand reshape Nigeria’s external balance….
Nigeria’s push for domestic refining took an unexpected turn in 2025 as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported crude oil worth $3.74 billion, underscoring a growing contradiction in the country’s oil sector despite its status as a major crude producer.
Figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report show that these imports played a role in shaping the country’s current account performance, even as crude oil exports declined significantly during the same period.
Export earnings from crude fell by 14.41 percent, dropping from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025. The decline added pressure to Nigeria’s external balance, which continues to rely heavily on oil revenues.
At the same time, the refinery’s operations delivered a major upside by reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuel. With increased local production of refined petroleum products, fuel imports dropped sharply by 28.88 percent to $10 billion, down from $14.06 billion in the previous year.
This shift contributed to a stronger goods account surplus, which rose to $14.51 billion in 2025 from $13.17 billion in 2024. The improvement was driven in part by refined petroleum exports from the Dangote facility, which accounted for billions of dollars in outbound trade, alongside stronger gas export performance.
However, the gains from reduced fuel imports were partly offset by a surge in non-oil imports. Spending on foreign goods climbed by 13.60 percent to $29.24 billion, reflecting sustained domestic demand for imports across various sectors of the economy.
Overall, Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025. While lower than the $19.03 billion posted in 2024, it remains significantly higher than the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023. Analysts point to evolving oil trade patterns including crude imports for local refining as a key factor behind the year-on-year decline.
Beyond trade, rising external obligations also weighed on the current account. Net outflows in the services sector increased to $14.58 billion, driven by higher spending on transportation, travel, and insurance. In addition, payments in the primary income account surged by over 60 percent to $9.09 billion, largely due to increased dividend and interest remittances to foreign investors.
Meanwhile, inflows from secondary income, which include remittances and official transfers, dipped slightly to $23.20 billion from $24.88 billion a year earlier, though they remained an important source of foreign exchange.
In a broader context, Nigeria’s crude import bill reached an estimated ₦5.73 trillion between January and December 2025, highlighting persistent supply challenges facing domestic refineries. This comes despite the Federal Government’s widely promoted naira-for-crude policy aimed at boosting local supply.
The developments point to a complex transition phase for Nigeria’s oil industry where gains from local refining and export diversification are increasingly evident, but structural inefficiencies and supply gaps continue to create new economic pressures.
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