Experts warn new CPI methodology could affect investor confidence despite easing inflation
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has expressed concern that recent changes to Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations may create credibility gaps, potentially undermining confidence in official inflation statistics. The warning comes in a policy brief issued Sunday by CPPE CEO, Dr. Muda Yusuf.
Although Nigeria’s inflation has continued a downward trend over the past year, CPPE cautioned that adjustments in key CPI computation methods could raise doubts among investors, businesses, analysts, and policymakers.
“Even when the data is accurate, stakeholders may question its validity if the methodology is unclear,” the brief said. “Maintaining confidence in official statistics is essential for effective policy-making and sustaining market trust.”
What Changed in CPI Calculations
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation eased to 15.15% in December 2025, following a revision of its measurement approach. The NBS now calculates year-on-year inflation and sub-indices using a 12-month reference period, setting 2024 as the base year, instead of relying on a single-month reference.
To clarify the changes, the NBS announced it would publish two separate inflation figures for December, a move that partly explains why the headline rate appeared to jump under the new methodology.
Why It Matters for the Economy
CPPE highlighted that inflation data underpins critical economic decisions, including:
- Monetary policy adjustments by the Central Bank of Nigeria
- Fiscal planning and government budgeting
- Investment and business planning
- Wage negotiations and pricing decisions
Any perceived inconsistencies could therefore affect policy implementation and investor confidence, potentially complicating fiscal and monetary strategies.
Global Endorsement and Next Steps
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has endorsed the NBS’s updated methodology, stating that it aligns with international best practices and supports Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability.
Still, CPPE emphasized that trust and transparency in inflation reporting remain essential for market confidence and policy effectiveness. “Reliable inflation statistics are not just technical they are central to restoring confidence in Nigeria’s economic indicators,” said Yusuf.
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