Private Sector Optimism Rises Amid Expansion Plans, but Insecurity and High Costs Remain Key Challenges
Nigeria’s business climate is set to improve steadily over the next six months, with confidence levels expected to reach one of their highest points in recent years, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The CBN Business Expectations Survey (BES) for November 2025 shows that business confidence currently stands at 37.5 index points, reflecting moderate optimism among respondents about the country’s macroeconomic environment. Over the next six months, the index is projected to climb to 52.8 points, signaling stronger anticipated economic activity.
Sectoral and Regional Insights
The survey highlights optimism across all major sectors:
- Industry leads at 38.1 index points.
- Agriculture and Services follow closely.
- Mining and Quarrying reported the highest operational confidence at 50.0 points, indicating strong output expectations.
- Construction shows the most significant expansion prospects, while Mining and Quarrying is expected to lead in employment growth.
Regionally, the North-East tops the optimism chart with 52.7 points, while the South-East registers the lowest at 18.7 points. Despite regional variations, all areas reported generally positive expectations.
Drivers of Optimism
The upward trend in confidence is linked to plans for business expansion, increased production, and higher labour demand. Many companies signalled intentions to hire additional workers in December 2025, suggesting momentum for sustained economic growth.
Persistent Challenges
Despite the positive outlook, respondents highlighted several ongoing constraints:
- Insecurity and financial challenges
- High taxes and interest rates
- Poor electricity supply
Lower-ranked concerns included poor infrastructure and political factors, indicating that structural and financial issues weigh more heavily on businesses than politics.
Economic Context
Supporting the survey’s findings, Nigeria’s private sector PMI rose to 56.4 in November 2025, up from 55.4 in October, signaling continued expansion and reinforcing a steady economic rebound this year.
Overall, businesses are cautiously optimistic, but achieving sustainable growth will depend on addressing insecurity, high operational costs, and financing barriers.
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