Cape Derby poser: pace on or pace off?

Which horse will set the pace? That’s always an important question when pundits put grey matter to work in analysing a big race.

This weekend, it’s the R1.5-million Lucky Fish Cape Derby, the final Grade 1 event of what’s been a smashing Cape Town summer season.

Among the eight three-year-old combatants on Saturday, 16-1 shot Better Man has shown readiness to lead the way before. The trouble is, the last time Vaughan Marshall-trained gelding tried the bravura tactic he ran out of puff, over a shorter trip than the demanding 2000m he must traverse here, and his connections might opt to get him to hold fire in the early stages this time.

The danger in a situation like this, with a small field, is that all runners ease back and wait for someone else to set the tempo; resulting in the notorious “Cape crawl” and a chaotic sprint over the final few hundred metres – sometimes resulting in an upset result.

Last year’s Cape Derby was run at a “sedate pace” according to the official handicappers. Luckily for punters, the favourite, champion horse Eight On Eighteen, had the all-round class needed to fly up from the back and get the job done.

Snaith’s runners

Back to the 2026 edition: Apart from Better Man, fellow outsiders Ignite the Flame and Pay The Palace have shown some toe in the past. Any one of them – or all three! – could try to catch their rivals napping at the rear and steal the race from the front.

It makes for an intriguing puzzle.

As usual, champion trainer Justin Snaith is bristling with firepower, including ante-post favourite Happy Verse (7-2). This star-in-the-making was a hot-pot last time out in the Politician Stakes but was overhauled in the final strides of that 1800m contest. His conquerer, Star Major, re-opposes and is at surprisingly generous early odds of 6-1.

Snaith’s other runners, filly Wish List and gelding Note To Self, look progressive types and cannot be left out of exotic permutations.

The best value bet might be Viva’s Liberte (15-1) from the in-form Candice Bass stable. The son of Vercongetorix is lightly raced and untried over distance but wouldn’t be pitched in here without some indication back home that he’s up to the test.

In the confusion of a muddled pace, Viva’s Liberte and championship leading jockey Craig Zackey might pounce and snatch the spoils.