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There is that song where Bobi Wine sings about our adversaries, that “they fear what they don’t know, and they don’t know what they fear.” [Was it about our oppressors or was it about Bebe Cool?]
These lines ought to have a rejoinder laughing at Bobi Wine himself: “the feared also don’t know that they are feared.” Or that “the feared are even in more fear because they don’t know why they are feared.”
While it could be true that Bobi Wine is in even more fear – especially because of the violence he has suffered already – it is not entirely true that Bobi Wine doesn’t really understand why Museveni fears him.
What is truer is Yoweri Museveni and team fear Bobi Wine for reasons Bobi Wine is tongue-tied to articulate: the possibility of a revolution. It is not about Bobi Wine winning the election by collecting more votes and being declared winner.
This is of course unlikely. But the election itself being the platform for revolutionary action in the immediate aftermath of this election. It is a repeat of 2021, but this time with even more anger, more urgency.
Will Bobi Wine pick this revolutionary window – where his supporters – excited by this electoral season, with his absolute encouragement – deciding to take a radical stand, and demanding that Museveni stands down?
I know, the fear is on both sides: with Museveni and co. having the weapons of coercion ranging from teargas, enkoni to live ammunitions, he might return with outright violence – as he has already demonstrated.
Bobi Wine fears for the lives of many Ugandans. But on the other hand, this is Museveni’s worst fear, too: being forced into a situation where he has to bring out his entire might – including live bullets – to dispel protestors and the likelihood of a bloodbath.
But at this point – as often happened under Col Kizza Besigye – the country will be in Bobi Wine’s hands. Dear reader, I do not write these things with glee. But with absolute fear in my bones.
As I have noted plenty of times, what explains the (technical, fairly measured) moments of violence that have come to meet the Bobi Wine campaign is that Bobi Wine supporters have to be endlessly reminded that dreaming bigger than just votes is dangerous business. It is a risky dangerous manufacturing of fear – which risks becoming a provocation, and a catalyst for a response.
ARTICLE 29 (1) (D) To be considered serious in this electoral cycle, the main opposition figure has to confront Museveni on his own terms. He has to meet Museveni’s expectations – that which Museveni is most prepared for.
Just as Yoweri Museveni did in 1980, warning that if elections were stolen (not sure how this conclusion will be reached), they will follow his 1980 example. While they will never consider going to the bush (there are no bushes anymore, and going to the bush is entirely unconstitutional), Bobi Wine has to put Yoweri Museveni on high alert.
He has to endlessly remind Yoweri Museveni that they will mobilize and protest the outcome of this election. To their advantage, Yoweri Museveni is yet to push through an amendment or deletion of Article 29 (1) (d) which guarantee the “freedom to assemble and demonstrate together with others peacefully and unarmed and to petition.”
While this could be the intention, that is, to use the election as catalyst to assemble and demonstrate and petition (because Bobi Wine and team appreciate this election results will be pre-determined), the BW team has to articulate the freedoms enshrined in Article 29 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda.
Noting that Museveni is preparing for this possibility, Bobi Wine has to alert him early enough. Either Museveni may back off – which is more unlikely since violence is second nature to his politics – or might decide to escalate, which is more likely and ongoing. As The Observer wondered a couple of weeks ago, one is tempted to imagine NUP is running against the security forces themselves.
But Bobi Wine has to embolden his campaign and posture so as to inspire and force any meaningful adjustment. To be fair, the slogan “Protest Vote” remains ambiguous as it could mean a boycott of the entire election, or an overwhelming vote here in response to an injustice there.
Thanks to NUP lawyer, Sam Muyizi Kayayu, I learned recently that the slogan meant overwhelming the incumbent at the polls, and protesting to protect this victory. But it remains unarticulated.
IS THIS NOT A CALL FOR VIOLENCE?
The framers of the 1995 Constitution and the successive amenders of this document throughout the years have decided not to touch Article 29 because it is part of a good political environment. It is not a call for violence.
Indeed, to express disapproval through mobilizing demonstrations peacefully with others for extended periods is the more civilised approach. It is better than the 1980-86 so-called liberation war, which emerged out of an election and killed thousands.
Notice, however, that our fear is that Yoweri Museveni and team have never seen a peaceful protest in their lives. And under the circumstances, this remains the most potent scare Museveni can ever think of.
Indeed, especially after witnessing Kenya and Tanzania recently, Ugandans are in utmost fear of their government. The compounded fear is that with Museveni turning Ugandans into some form of extended family with him as the paterfamilias, and us his children and grandchildren, it becomes clear that he patronises anyone ready to stand up to him. He is likely to return with violence.
The point I am making here is that Bobi Wine has a call to make – and more than anything else, especially after January 15, the country will be in his hands, not Yoweri Museveni’s.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
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