Lagos APC says data-driven analysis shows electoral irregularities cut across parties, not the ruling party alone
The Lagos State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress has cited a newly published independent statistical analysis of Nigeria’s 2023 general elections to counter what it described as a long-running false narrative that electoral irregularities were carried out exclusively by the ruling party.
In a statement issued on Tuesday by its spokesman, Mogaji (Hon) Seye Oladejo, the party said the study decisively challenges claims that the 2023 elections were “rigged from the centre,” arguing instead that malpractice was neither isolated nor partisan.
According to the Lagos APC, the analysis was conducted as part of a Data Science master’s thesis at Pan-Atlantic University and examined voting patterns across more than 123,000 polling units nationwide. The party said the findings show that electoral irregularities were most pronounced in areas considered strongholds of opposition parties, particularly the Labour Party in parts of the South-East.
The party noted that while Lagos State, described as the political base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, recorded an anomaly rate of 2.3 per cent, significantly higher figures were reported in several states that had previously claimed to be victims of widespread rigging. Anambra State reportedly recorded an anomaly rate of 24.9 per cent, Enugu 16.7 per cent, and Imo 10.9 per cent.
“These are not marginal discrepancies or clerical errors,” the APC said, describing the figures as indicators of large-scale manipulation.
The party also drew attention to the study’s findings on what it termed “perfect scores,” described as unusually uniform vote distributions that statistical models flag as suspicious. According to the APC, the Labour Party accounted for a disproportionate number of such results, despite securing less than one-third of the total votes cast nationwide.
The Lagos APC argued that the data undermines claims that the election outcome was imposed by the ruling party, stating that the evidence instead suggests that electoral manipulation occurred wherever opportunities existed, regardless of party affiliation.
While acknowledging the study’s conclusion that the 2023 elections were neither entirely fraudulent nor entirely free of irregularities, the party said the findings highlight the evolving and increasingly subtle nature of electoral malpractice in Nigeria.
The APC said it supports electoral reforms aimed at strengthening transparency and accountability, including independent audits of election data, real-time transmission of results, improved technical capacity for the electoral commission, and the prosecution of electoral offenders irrespective of political party.
The party also warned that it would resist any attempt by the opposition to manipulate future elections or distort electoral outcomes through what it described as emotional blackmail or revisionist narratives.
According to the statement, democracy cannot be sustained through “manufactured victimhood” or post-election outrage, but through facts, fairness and strict enforcement of electoral rules.
The Lagos APC said Nigerians have become more discerning and that data-driven analysis would continue to play a critical role in safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process before, during and after elections.
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