This week’s by-election results are not going to topple a government or destroy a political party but they provide, nevertheless, a fascinating glimpse into local politics and how the old alignments are changing before our eyes.
The ANC won three and lost three… but the really interesting analysis is not only how they won, but how they lost – and to whom.
In Joburg, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) claimed the Diepkloof/Noordgesig ward 29 seat, thanks to its support from coloured voters in Noordgesig, which surged to 71%, an increase of 34 percentage points over the previous poll.
The ANC couldn’t be rescued by the black voters in Diepkloof because its support there was at just 34%… a significant drop of 17 percentage points.
The PA also ousted the ANC in Swellendam in the Western Cape, with its coloured voters bringing it 51% of the ballots, a staggering 50 percentage points up.
In the North West, ActionSA won its first by-election, pulling in 33% of the votes – although it must be said this was due to its alliance with the Forum 4 Service Delivery organisation.
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ANC support was down 25 percentage points to 33% in ward 7, Ramotshere Moiloa.
Where the ANC did win – in Langeberg in the Western Cape, Engcobo in the Eastern Cape and in Musina district in Limpopo – its majority, with the exception of Langeberg, was reduced.
We’re not surprised. It is becoming more and more difficult for ordinary South Africans to ignore the flood of reports of corruption and theft by ANC cadres or their mates.
You’d have to wonder why people in Musina, who still don’t have running water, would continue to vote for the part of non-delivery, though…
If the ANC wants to achieve anything in the upcoming local government elections, it had better start mending its inefficient, looting ways.
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