Think tank says crude oil exports remain exempt as Nigeria’s limited trade exposure cushions impact of new U.S. import duties…..
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has downplayed the potential impact of the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on selected imports from Nigeria, arguing that the country’s economy is unlikely to suffer any significant disruption because most of its exports to the U.S. remain unaffected.
In an assessment released on Sunday by it’s Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, the private sector policy think tank said the latest tariff measures largely represent a continuation of former President Donald Trump’s reciprocal trade policy, although implemented under a different legal framework.
According to the CPPE, the earlier reciprocal tariff regime was struck down by U.S. courts, prompting Washington to restructure the measures under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the legal basis for the new action.
Despite the change in legal justification, the organisation said the policy objective remains unchanged—protecting American industries, strengthening domestic manufacturing and advancing broader U.S. economic interests through trade policy.
The CPPE, however, believes Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariffs is relatively limited because of the structure of its exports to the United States.
It noted that crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S., adding that these products are exempt from the latest tariff measures.
As a result, the organisation said the bulk of Nigeria’s export earnings from the American market would remain largely insulated from the policy.
The think tank also pointed out that the United States is no longer Nigeria’s largest export destination.
Citing Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, the CPPE said the country recorded total exports of approximately ₦21.6 trillion, with shipments to the United States accounting for just 5.56 per cent of that figure.
By comparison, India remained Nigeria’s largest export market during the period, accounting for 13.09 per cent of total exports, followed by France with 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands at 9.22 per cent, and Spain with 7.68 per cent. The United States ranked fifth among Nigeria’s export destinations.
According to the organisation, the relatively small share of exports destined for the U.S. significantly reduces the overall economic risk posed by the tariff increase.
It acknowledged that exporters in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing could face tougher competition in the American market, but maintained that the effect on Nigeria’s overall export earnings, foreign exchange inflows and broader macroeconomic performance is expected to be limited.
While the immediate economic implications may be modest, the CPPE warned that the development reflects a wider shift in global trade toward increased protectionism and the growing use of tariffs and industrial policies to advance national economic interests.
It said the changing global trade landscape reinforces the need for Nigeria to accelerate export diversification, strengthen domestic manufacturing, increase value addition and take greater advantage of opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The organisation also urged the Federal Government to improve labour standards, enhance supply chain transparency and maintain constructive engagement with U.S. authorities to gain clarity on the implementation of the tariff measures while reducing potential disruptions for Nigerian exporters.
According to the CPPE, Nigeria’s bigger challenge is not the immediate effect of the new tariffs but adapting to an increasingly fragmented global trading system where protectionist policies are becoming more common.
The organisation concluded that although the announcement has generated concern among exporters, its direct economic impact on Nigeria should not be overstated given the country’s export structure and the continued exemption of its dominant petroleum exports from the new U.S. tariff regime.
