The World Bank Group has warned that climate change could push an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035 and reduce the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by as much as 6.8 per cent by 2050 if urgent adaptation measures are not implemented.
The warning was contained in the World Bank Group Nigeria Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), which painted a stark picture of the economic and social risks facing Africa’s largest economy as rising temperatures, floods, droughts, coastal erosion and other climate-related shocks increasingly threaten livelihoods, infrastructure and productivity.
According to the report, climate change has emerged as a major threat to Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2035 and achieving its long-term goal of transitioning to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by 2050.
While acknowledging recent economic reforms and improvements in macroeconomic stability, the World Bank stressed that climate-related risks could undermine gains in poverty reduction, economic growth and shared prosperity unless the country significantly scales up investments in resilience and adaptation.
The report noted that about 138 million Nigerians, representing roughly 60 per cent of the population, were estimated to be living in poverty as of 2024, with nearly half unable to afford a minimum caloric consumption basket even if all their expenditure was devoted to food.
It stated that under a pessimistic climate scenario characterised by higher temperatures and lower rainfall, poverty levels could worsen substantially, with millions more Nigerians falling below the poverty line.
“The impacts of climate change are projected to hamper progress in poverty reduction, with the pessimistic Dry/Hot scenario pushing an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035,” the report said.
Besides, the World Bank warned that climate change could worsen inequality, with poorer households likely to suffer disproportionately because they are more dependent on agriculture and outdoor work.
According to the report, expenditures among the poorest 20 per cent of Nigerians could decline by about 3 per cent by 2035 under adverse climate conditions, compared to 1.7 per cent among the wealthiest households.
The report highlighted labour productivity as one of the biggest casualties of climate change, noting that rising temperatures and heat stress could reduce national productivity by up to 3.8 per cent by 2050. Agriculture, which remains the primary source of livelihood for two-thirds of poor Nigerians and contributes about 25 per cent of GDP, is expected to face the most severe impact.
The World Bank projected that labour productivity losses in agriculture could reach as high as 6.3 per cent by mid-century, while rain-fed crop production could decline by up to 3.9 per cent and irrigated agriculture by as much as 11.2 per cent under some climate scenarios.
It further noted that climate change was already contributing to social tensions and insecurity, including herder-farmer conflicts, by intensifying competition over land and water resources.
The report warned that rising temperatures and extreme weather events would also increase the burden of disease, worsen nutrition outcomes and place additional strain on Nigeria’s already overstretched healthcare system.
It estimated that annual damages to bridge infrastructure from inland flooding alone could rise to $172.8 million by 2050, while damages to transport infrastructure generally are expected to increase sharply as flooding and extreme weather events become more frequent.
Despite the grim outlook, the World Bank stressed that decisive action could substantially reduce the economic costs of climate change and even generate long-term growth benefits.
According to the report, implementation of recommended adaptation measures could reduce projected GDP losses to just 0.5 per cent by 2030 and potentially result in GDP being 0.9 per cent higher than baseline levels by 2050.
The report estimated that Nigeria would require about $94.6 billion in investments between 2025 and 2030 to support its climate-resilient and low-emission development agenda, representing approximately 3.6 per cent of GDP. A further $114.4 billion, it stressed, would be needed between 2030 and 2040, while an additional $73 billion would be required between 2040 and 2050.
“The indicative investment needs for Nigeria’s resilient, low-emission transition are estimated to be US$94.6 billion (3.6 per cent of GDP) for 2025–2030, US$114.4 billion (3.5 per cent of
GDP) for 2030–2040, and US$73 billion (2.46 percent of GDP) for 2040–2050. These estimates are subject to uncertainties related to climate projections, the coarse resolution of available climate models, and evolving cost factors that may change over time,” the report stated.
The World Bank said much of the financing would need to come from a combination of public resources, private sector investment, multilateral institutions and climate finance mechanisms.
It also urged Nigeria to strengthen implementation of existing climate policies, improve coordination among government agencies, expand access to finance, improve infrastructure and accelerate structural reforms needed to support sustainable growth.
While noting that the federal government has already initiated several reforms across the energy, agriculture, health and social protection sectors, the report maintained that current efforts must be significantly expanded if Nigeria is to achieve its development aspirations while protecting its economy and population from the growing impacts of climate change.
Emmanuel Addeh
