The African Development Bank Group has projected that Nigeria’s economic expansion will ease to 3.7 per cent in 2027 as softer global crude oil prices reduce foreign revenue earnings, despite a slight improvement expected in 2026.
The projection was contained in the bank’s latest African Economic Outlook 2026 report, which estimated that Nigeria’s growth rate would edge up from 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.1 per cent in 2026.
The report attributed the expected 2026 growth to higher oil production and prices, continued expansion in the services sector, and increased government investment in electricity, transportation and logistics infrastructure.
The AfDB stated, “Growth in Nigeria, the region’s largest economy, is projected to increase marginally from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.1 per cent in 2026, supported by increasing oil prices and production, growth in the services sector, and increased public investment in electricity, transport, and logistics. In 2027, growth is projected to decelerate to 3.7 per cent on account of the anticipated easing of global oil prices and thus reduced external revenue inflows.”
The bank also cautioned that Africa’s medium-term economic outlook remains exposed to risks including supply chain disruptions, inflation, currency depreciation and tighter global financial conditions.
It further noted that rising fuel and fertiliser costs could hurt agricultural productivity, worsen food insecurity and intensify inflationary pressures across the continent.
According to the report, persistent inflation may compel African central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies, a move that could slow economic growth by limiting credit to the private sector.
