World Bank warns prolonged Strait of Hormuz crisis could deepen hunger risks for millions worldwide….
Global food prices recorded a sharp increase in the weeks following the near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, as tensions and conflict in the Middle East sent shockwaves through global supply chains and energy markets.
A new analysis by the World Bank revealed that food prices rose by five per cent within two months after the crisis erupted in late February 2026, pushing global food costs to their highest level since January 2024.
According to the report, the biggest pressure came from oils and meals, which surged by 10 per cent during the period. The spike was linked to rising crude oil prices and stronger biofuel demand in major economies such as the United States, Indonesia and Thailand.
The bank explained that higher energy prices increased production and transportation costs, while new biofuel blending policies further tightened demand for edible oils.
Grain prices, however, saw a more moderate increase of three per cent, largely because global supply levels remained relatively stable despite growing concerns over drought conditions and rising farming costs.
Wheat prices gained nine per cent over the quarter, while maize climbed four per cent as fears over weather-related disruptions and expensive agricultural inputs continued to weigh on markets.
Despite the latest surge, the World Bank noted that the current situation remains less severe than the global food crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
During the early stages of that conflict, global food prices jumped by about 15 per cent within a similar timeframe, nearly three times higher than the current increase.
“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the World Bank stated, pointing to strong global grain and oilseed supplies as a key stabilising factor.
The report also noted that many farmers in the Northern Hemisphere had already secured fertiliser supplies before the conflict escalated, helping to soften the impact on agricultural production.
Among the hardest-hit commodities was soybean oil, which rose 16 per cent in the first quarter and is now up 25 per cent year-on-year. Analysts linked the increase to stronger renewable diesel demand and updated biofuel targets in the United States.
Palm oil and soybean prices also strengthened amid renewed buying activity from China and rising biodiesel demand globally, although the World Bank said abundant edible oil supplies helped prevent even steeper increases.
The crisis has intensified food security concerns in several import-dependent economies, particularly across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
According to the report, food inflation accelerated sharply in Gulf countries after supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted.
Iran was identified as one of the most vulnerable countries, with food inflation already standing at 98 per cent before the latest conflict worsened market conditions.
The World Bank also observed rising food inflation in parts of Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and South Asia, echoing patterns seen during the fallout from the Ukraine war.
Looking ahead, the bank projected modest increases in food commodity prices through 2026, with grains expected to rise by two per cent, oils and meals by four per cent, and the broader food index by around 2.5 per cent.
However, it warned that the outlook remains highly uncertain and risks are “tilted firmly to the upside,” especially if the Middle East conflict drags on or energy prices continue to rise.
Meanwhile, the United Nations World Food Programme warned that prolonged supply disruptions could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in 2026, with the largest impact expected across Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region.
