Brent crude prices are experiencing significant volatility following a “fragile” two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.
Equity markets across the globe soared and crude plunged on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week halt to the conflict, while Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz as peace talks took place.
Cracks
However, with the deal less than a day old, cracks are already appearing after Tel Aviv said it does not include Israel’s fight against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, as it continues attacks on its northern neighbour.
That view was echoed by US Vice President JD Vance.
“If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart… over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them, and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice,” AFP reported.
Brent crude
Brent crude futures dropped by approximately 13% to 15% on Wednesday, settling at around $94 to $95 per barrel.
However, on Thursday, 9 April, prices climbed back by more than 2%, trading at approximately $97 per barrel.
Amid the current volatility in Brent crude oil prices amid the shaky ceasefire, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show there has not been a major shift in what motorists may pay for fuel at the pumps in May.
Current fuel forecast
According to the latest data from the CEF as of 8 April 2026, motorists could pay more than R11 per litre for diesel.
The CEF’s under-recoveries also indicate that petrol prices may rise by more than R3.93 per litre, adding further strain on households and businesses.
According to the CEF’s data, the under-recovery in petrol prices has now reached between R3.52 and R3.93 per litre, while diesel has soared to about R11.50-R11.55 per litre.
The prices have dropped by between R1 and R2 compared to the forecast on 6 April 2026.
Under-recoveries on illuminating paraffin are now amounting to R9.12 per litre.
Fuel levy
Earlier this month, the Department of Minerals Resources and Energy announced a temporary R3 price relief on the fuel levy for April.
Unless the department absorbs the May reduction, the R3 will also kick in, adding more pain to the spike in fuel prices.
