Sharp January decline highlights changing demand patterns, rising African competition, and evolving U.S. trade posture…..
Nigeria’s foothold in the United States crude oil market weakened significantly at the start of 2026, as fresh data shows a steep drop in export volumes to one of its traditional buyers.
According to the latest figures from U.S. trade authorities, American imports of Nigerian crude fell dramatically in January, declining by over 47 percent compared to the previous month. The U.S. imported 1.664 million barrels during the period, a sharp fall from the 3.149 million barrels recorded in December 2025.
In absolute terms, Nigeria lost nearly 1.5 million barrels in export volume within just one month, a contraction that underscores shifting global oil trade flows and competitive pressures within Africa.
The impact was equally visible in monetary terms. The value of Nigerian crude shipments to the U.S. dropped steeply, with customs valuation falling from $217.36 million in December to $115.99 million in January. When additional costs such as freight and insurance were included, the total value declined from $223.10 million to $118.95 million.
Interestingly, the gap between these two valuation measures narrowed in January, suggesting reduced shipping or logistics costs during the period, possibly due to shorter routes or improved freight conditions.
The decline in Nigeria’s exports came amid a broader pullback in overall U.S. crude imports. Total volumes into the American market slipped by about 5 percent month-on-month, falling from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January. Import values also trended lower across the board.
Within Africa, however, the story was more competitive than contractionary.
Angola significantly expanded its presence in the U.S. market, with exports surging from just 575,000 barrels in December to over 2 million barrels in January. Ghana also entered the supply mix with 738,000 barrels after recording no measurable exports in the previous month. Libya, on the other hand, saw its shipments decline, though not as sharply as Nigeria’s.
As a result, Nigeria’s share of total U.S. crude imports dropped to just 0.88 percent in January, down from about 1.59 percent a month earlier, highlighting how quickly market positioning can shift in a competitive environment.
Despite the setback, crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s exports to the United States. Of the total $183 million worth of goods imported by the U.S. from Nigeria in January, crude accounted for roughly two-thirds. However, this represents a slight dilution compared to December, when crude made up over 73 percent of total exports.
The broader trade balance also tilted in Washington’s favour. The United States recorded a goods trade surplus of $419 million with Nigeria in January, a significant jump from $84 million in December. This was largely driven by a surge in U.S. exports to Nigeria, which climbed to $602 million even as imports declined.
Across the African continent, the U.S. shifted from a trade surplus in December to a deficit in January, reflecting increased imports from the region despite slightly lower export volumes.
Looking at the bigger picture, Nigeria still plays a dominant role in Africa’s crude exports to the U.S. Over the full year 2025, the country accounted for more than half of all African crude shipments to the American market, supplying 46.6 million barrels. While this was lower than 2024 levels, Nigeria’s relative share of the market actually increased.
Back home, production trends tell a different story. Nigeria’s crude output rose in January to 1.64 million barrels per day, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December, according to official data. At the same time, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported strong financial performance, posting ₦385 billion in profit after tax for the month, even as overall revenue declined sharply.
The disconnect between rising production and falling U.S. exports suggests that Nigeria may be redirecting crude to other markets or facing changing demand patterns from American refiners.
Trade policy shifts in the United States may also be playing a role. Under President Donald Trump, Washington has adopted a more protectionist stance, including adjustments to tariff structures affecting several countries, Nigeria included. While crude oil exports are largely shielded from these tariffs, uncertainty around broader trade rules may be influencing buyer behavior and long-term contracts.
Economic analysts, however, believe the direct impact of these policies on Nigeria remains limited. Dr. Muda Yusuf, an economist and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, noted that Nigeria’s trade exposure to the U.S. is relatively small and unlikely to significantly affect the broader economy.
He argued that Nigeria’s export profile remains too narrow, heavily reliant on crude oil and a few other commodities, leaving significant room for diversification.
Yusuf also pointed to non-tariff barriers particularly U.S. visa restrictions as a more critical constraint on trade and investment flows between both countries, limiting business engagement and long-term partnerships.
Ultimately, the January figures highlight a rapidly evolving global oil market where supply routes, geopolitical tensions, and policy shifts are reshaping traditional trade relationships.
For Nigeria, the challenge going forward will be not just increasing production, but securing stable demand across multiple markets in an increasingly competitive and uncertain global energy landscape.
About the Author
